Conventional Wisdom about Leadership Conventions

Is no longer to be trusted.

First of all, Prime Minister Martin resigned the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada sooner than expected. Then, two leading suspects to once again join the race to lead the Party also defied conventional expectation.

Hon. John Manley announced quickly, Wednesday evening January 25th, it seems, that he would not seek the Leadership. Then, rumours began that Frank McKenna would not seek it, either. He who was "expected to inherit the Martin machine" (my words.) Maybe Frank did not want to take the risk of becoming a magnet for that machine and that way of thinking. Maybe he also knows what might be better and healthier for the Liberal Party of Canada and, hopefully, Canada itself, in terms of its democracy and its challenge to the Conservative Party of Canada and whatever it comes up with.

Liberal Leadership speculation list: January 30th, 2006 [3:30 PM EST]

OUT: John Manley
OUT: Frank McKenna
OUT:David Emerson: declared himself to be wrong age

INTERIM LEADER SPECULATIONS WITH AN ANDREW CAMERON INTERPRETATION:

Ralph Goodale – another prospective interim Leader, in my book
Bill Graham – prospective interim Leader [Toronto]
Stephane Dion

LEADERSHIP SPECULATION, in descending order:

totally and completely arbitrary, of course, and with some humour too

Brian Tobin
Michael Ignatieff [Toronto]
Allan Rock [Toronto]
Martin Cauchon
Maurizio Bevilacqua
Scott Brison
Belinda Stronach
Ken Dryden [Toronto]
Joe Volpe [Toronto]
Denis Coderre
Anne McLellan – not elected anywhere
Ujjal Dosanjh
Bob Rae
Jean Chretien: comeback?
Sheila Copps
John Godfrey [just Andrew Cameron's own plug of a good thinker and veteran Lib MP]

Beryl Wajsman: should not be on this list at all, may have been “banished from Party”, but apparently wants to "give a good speech on a big platform" (paraphrase) -I'm almost okay with that, too...

Tom Wappel

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