waiting for the results of the third ballot

First, a quick tribute to Saskboy and his Friday night perogy odyssey.

Next, a little view of my simplistic tracking system in my Calgary apartment TV war room (and yeah, it would be nice to be in Montreal...)

Finally, a look at most of the Liberal presence in my apartment out here: Ontario Premier and MPP for Ottawa South, Dalton McGuinty; Ontario public health Minister Jim Watson, MPP for Ottawa West -- Nepean; Hon. John Manley, P.C., former member of Parliament for Ottawa South, former Deputy Prime Minister, Finance Minister, Minister of public safety and Canada-USA relations; former Minister of Foreign Affairs; former Minister of Industry [and I may have missed some]; and finally, Richard Mahoney, Party insider, former President of the Ontario Liberal Party, and candidate in Ottawa Centre during Paul Martin's time as Leader. Missing from the wall is a David McGuinty sign, current MP for Ottawa South, fine thinker, up-and-comer, and Ignatieff endorser (I respectfully disagree.)

On we go to the main show.


It is down to three right now on the ballot, and after the ballot, someone must be eliminated. We can guess that Ignatieff will probably hold the lead and stay for the final ballot. Bob Rae or Stephane Dion will likely be eliminated.

So, I guess it is time for a quick comparison.

First, the common strengths of these three. All of them are fine intellects and capable academics. All of them are very capably bilingual.

Dion's relative strengths are the following:

The most experienced federal politician... about nine years as a federal Cabinet Minister with tough portfolios, intergovernmental affairs / unity Minister, and Minister of the Environment trying to shepherd Kyoto implementation and world negotiation. Dion has credibility from the Chretien days and, after briefly being shunned aside by Paul Martin, was later readopted with smart success. His campaign has also represented a good bridge, with leadership from Martin insider organizer loyalist Mark Marissen, and Chretien loyalist and former Cabinet Minister Don Boudria. Shepherded the Clarity Act, perhaps the best legacy of Jean Chretien.

* reporting from the floor seems to indicate Rae has been passed by Dion and will be knocked off *

Bob Rae's relative strengths are the following:

He is not an experienced federal politician, but he certainly is an experienced national figure. Bob Rae missed the Meech Lake warfare, but advocated passionately for Charlottetown as Ontario Premier in 1992. Later, he has served nationally on the Air India inquiry, and he served Ontario (a second time) on a significant review of the postsecondary education system in Canada's largest province, a review which Premier McGuinty is implementing right now. Rae speaks excellent French, which is, I think, better than Stephane Dion's English. And of course, from 1990 to 1995, Bob Rae was the Premier of Ontario as an NDP Leader. And mistakes were made and lessons were learned. Unlike my parents, who definitely and eagerly helped vote him out, my Dad because Rae broke signed collective agreements, and my Mom because Rae imposed unpaid days off on the entire Ontario public service (infamous Rae days) and she is an Ontario teacher. By 1995, I appreciated and respected his more pragmatic centre left approach in tandem with the strong federalism he exhibited in Charlottetown that I described already. I in fact gave the Ontario NDP a mercy vote in 1995 [and some Liberal friends have hectored me ever since I revealed this...] and that was _solely_ for Bob Rae. Later that fall, I admired his admonition of Jacques Parizeau on the night of the 1995 Quebec referendum, when Parizeau blamed l'argent et le vote ethnique for the referendum defeat [money and the ethnic vote]. Rae said 'That's the vodka talking' to his former Permier's table colleague. Good on that. And one year later I met Rae while I was working on an event on the launch of his excellent memoir, from Protest to Power, which is a good tome that ultimately exposed his eventual split from the NDP to becoma a centrist federal Liberal.

* CBC coverage, interview of Jean Lapierre. He will be on Panels to do analysis. Jean Lapierre is a jerk and a founder of the BQ. Ech. Get lost. And keep your neutrality. Though to me, of course, it would be obvious. I suspect Lapierre must have preferred Ignatieff on the ballot due to the 'Quebecois nation' position. He certainly would not have been for Dion [and the Clarity Bill]

Michael Ignatieff: his obvious strength is his intellectual ability, and his experience as a public author/thinker and fairly effective communicator. His weaknesses are the overbilling by his own campaign as the second coming of Pierre Trudeau, his complete lack of serious federal experience in government, let alone Cabinet, the fact he missed those major Canadian debates: referendum 1980, referendum 1995 [I believe he covered it as a UK correspondent exploring notions of nation], Meech 1990, Charlottetown 1992, the Clarity Bill, and, every Liberal election campaign after 1968 and before 2006. This in turn, I think, has brought about his gaffes and flip flops on major questions relating to Quebec, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Israel/Lebabnon. He seemed blissfully unaware of the modern media, political, and internet/blog environment, perhaps remembering how Trudeau was able to be a provocateur and be rewarded for it.

The Liberal Party likes a winner and Ignatieff lost his early momentum and sheen as these predictable weaknesses ultimately revealed themselves.

The other evident difference: I can comment on Bob Rae and Stephane Dion's political records in Canada. With Ignatieff, one cannot. The most I really know is he campaigned for a Toronto candidate in 1968 while he was a student leader in Toronto, and later was an active Young Liberal prior to and during the Trudeau convention of 1968.


12:25 (Calgary) RESULTS are COMING SOON

My rough estimates (time to press 'publish')

Ignatieff: 40%
Dion: 35%
Rae: 25%

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Let the chips fall where they may, and kudos to Gerard Kennedy for making a kingmaker move at the right time.

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