Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Recent NHL results

Tonight was another good night in the NHL's Northeast division. First, the now chugging along smartly Ottawa Senators put a nice solid win on the board versus the New York Islanders, who are just a little above them in the Eastern Conference standings, around the 8th place playoff zone. The Senators are now more or less in a virtual tie with the Toronto MakeBelieves, who lost yet again tonight.

This must have been a painful reminder for the Maple Leafs of last Thursday's 5-0 humiliation at the hands of the same Atlanta Thrashers (powered by ex-Senator Marian Hossa.) Meanwhile, that same night, Ottawa, now storming along, whupped the Florida Panthers 6-0. I love scores like those on the same night ( I kinda lost the blog opportunity amid the lead-in hype to the Liberal convention )

The game recap, which I linked you to, contains a typical hockey quote from Dany Heatley:

"This is what we knew we were capable of," Heatley said. "We're a good team and we skate well. All we're doing is playing well as a team, which we weren't doing early on."

This is of course pretty much what I figured about the Senators' early difficulties: the composition of the team has changed, with the departure of Zdeno Chara from the Defence, and changes to the attack, too, with the departure of Martin Havlat. The Senators have taken some time to gel as a unit this fall. Looks to me like they have their unity and their systems up and running now. As I have noted, injuries to leader Wade Redden have not been helpful. Back to tonight, slight concern about Alfredsson's ankle, however, in the footage I saw, he skated off on his own power. So, rest him the rest of tonight, rest him tomorrow against the Washington Capitals, if necessary.

Sunday, December 03, 2006

Sunday December 3rd - Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip "The Christmas Show"


I won't put in any spoilers, because NBC actually airs the show on Monday nights. ButI get it on CTV in Canada and just finished watching it.

Anyway, while it is not up to the power of the West Wing Season I Christmas Episode (I don't know the title, but it was all built around a climax with 'the Little Drummer Boy') [and nothing can possibly top the magnificence of that particular episode] Studio 60's first go at it was pretty solid: with lots of romance, beautiful music with meaning, and an inspiring display of political free speech relevance from an unexpected source, it was a pretty good package. So I take it that was the end.

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It being December 3rd, and me being in town this weekend, I put up my little Christmas tree in my apartment. The red lights are new, just red, on green, in part because red and green are the class Christmas colours, but, also, symbolically, because red and green may well symbolize the new Liberal ethos under the guidance of Stephane Dion. Bonne chance, M. Dion.

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You'll also find a photo of Snoopy doing his figure skating in the Charlie Brown Christmas Special, the absolute best Christmas TV of all time, on the screen of my apartment television.

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Er, that's it. Gotta return to "work week" mode.

Saturday, December 02, 2006

I have to pick on Vijay Sappani --- AGAIN

RE:

More Support: Malhi, Brison. Sgro, Brison, Cauchon
December 2nd, 2006

Gurbax Malhi , Tony Valeri, Brison have moved in. I’m on the phone with some of my folks and it looks like we will have about 147 delegates moving in to Iggy now form the South Asian community!!!!

It looks like we are going to win!!!

Update: Sgro is in, Cauchon to Iggy

Posted in Politics | Comments Off

COMMENT I COULD NOT MAKE ON VIJAY's OWN SITE:

So desperate to spin, Vijay appears to have counted Scott Brison twice in the same headline. I have already commented for a long time that longtime dedication to the Liberal Party of Canada cause is a key with me. I have been consistent in saying for this reason, I was not supportive of a Scott Brison, of newly arrived Ignatieff, and that it was a factor in my not supporting Bob Rae directly other than applauding his strengths and applauding the fact he has come to our Party. Oh yeah, there's no way I would have supported Stronack either.

So there you go. It is fitting that Brison joins Iggy.

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This thing is over. If it is not, I would be shocked, and if it is not, Ignatieff's organizers would deserve to win.
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I have e-canvassed some swing voters, such as Richard Mahoney (see previous post) and the Dion consensus was very solid.

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I believe it to be over.

a moderate little scoop

Rae supporter Richard Mahoney and key Paul Martin backer selected STEPHANE DION.

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Jean Chretien is now on stage -> he's looking great, and so are Party prospects.

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I think it's in the bag for Dion.

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Je lui souhaite la meilleure chance et j'ai hate de l'appuyer en attaque contre Stephen Harper.

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de retour a Jean Chretien sur le podium.

-fin-

Ignatieff update

Ignatieff campaign circulating a compilation of public polling to voting candidates. Supposedly all the polls throughout the year say Ignatieff has the best chance against Stephen Harper.

I disagree. The Liberal Party of Canada is the best chance against Stephen Harper.

I also don't think circulating a bunch of non-election hypothetical polls outside of the Liberal voters at this convention matter much at all.

That seems to me to be another mistake. This is about the emotions of the most committed Liberal Party of Canada delegates, who are voting today. Inside a Liberal convention Hall.

CBC just reported that Martin Cauchon is about to endorse Ignatieff. I have a lot of respect for Martin Cauchon. I will respect this decision, too.

However, here are names that have moved to Dion in the last little while:

Ken Dryden
Martha Hall Findlay
Maurizio Bevilacqua
John Godfrey
Ralph Goodale

(and more)...

Now adding: Richard Mahoney

So, hopefully final results in about 1.5 hours.

Here is hopeing as well that a decisive victor emerges and that the Party can unite.

Let all Liberals get ready to fight Harper together!

waiting for the results of the third ballot




First, a quick tribute to Saskboy and his Friday night perogy odyssey.

Next, a little view of my simplistic tracking system in my Calgary apartment TV war room (and yeah, it would be nice to be in Montreal...)

Finally, a look at most of the Liberal presence in my apartment out here: Ontario Premier and MPP for Ottawa South, Dalton McGuinty; Ontario public health Minister Jim Watson, MPP for Ottawa West -- Nepean; Hon. John Manley, P.C., former member of Parliament for Ottawa South, former Deputy Prime Minister, Finance Minister, Minister of public safety and Canada-USA relations; former Minister of Foreign Affairs; former Minister of Industry [and I may have missed some]; and finally, Richard Mahoney, Party insider, former President of the Ontario Liberal Party, and candidate in Ottawa Centre during Paul Martin's time as Leader. Missing from the wall is a David McGuinty sign, current MP for Ottawa South, fine thinker, up-and-comer, and Ignatieff endorser (I respectfully disagree.)

On we go to the main show.


It is down to three right now on the ballot, and after the ballot, someone must be eliminated. We can guess that Ignatieff will probably hold the lead and stay for the final ballot. Bob Rae or Stephane Dion will likely be eliminated.

So, I guess it is time for a quick comparison.

First, the common strengths of these three. All of them are fine intellects and capable academics. All of them are very capably bilingual.

Dion's relative strengths are the following:

The most experienced federal politician... about nine years as a federal Cabinet Minister with tough portfolios, intergovernmental affairs / unity Minister, and Minister of the Environment trying to shepherd Kyoto implementation and world negotiation. Dion has credibility from the Chretien days and, after briefly being shunned aside by Paul Martin, was later readopted with smart success. His campaign has also represented a good bridge, with leadership from Martin insider organizer loyalist Mark Marissen, and Chretien loyalist and former Cabinet Minister Don Boudria. Shepherded the Clarity Act, perhaps the best legacy of Jean Chretien.

* reporting from the floor seems to indicate Rae has been passed by Dion and will be knocked off *

Bob Rae's relative strengths are the following:

He is not an experienced federal politician, but he certainly is an experienced national figure. Bob Rae missed the Meech Lake warfare, but advocated passionately for Charlottetown as Ontario Premier in 1992. Later, he has served nationally on the Air India inquiry, and he served Ontario (a second time) on a significant review of the postsecondary education system in Canada's largest province, a review which Premier McGuinty is implementing right now. Rae speaks excellent French, which is, I think, better than Stephane Dion's English. And of course, from 1990 to 1995, Bob Rae was the Premier of Ontario as an NDP Leader. And mistakes were made and lessons were learned. Unlike my parents, who definitely and eagerly helped vote him out, my Dad because Rae broke signed collective agreements, and my Mom because Rae imposed unpaid days off on the entire Ontario public service (infamous Rae days) and she is an Ontario teacher. By 1995, I appreciated and respected his more pragmatic centre left approach in tandem with the strong federalism he exhibited in Charlottetown that I described already. I in fact gave the Ontario NDP a mercy vote in 1995 [and some Liberal friends have hectored me ever since I revealed this...] and that was _solely_ for Bob Rae. Later that fall, I admired his admonition of Jacques Parizeau on the night of the 1995 Quebec referendum, when Parizeau blamed l'argent et le vote ethnique for the referendum defeat [money and the ethnic vote]. Rae said 'That's the vodka talking' to his former Permier's table colleague. Good on that. And one year later I met Rae while I was working on an event on the launch of his excellent memoir, from Protest to Power, which is a good tome that ultimately exposed his eventual split from the NDP to becoma a centrist federal Liberal.

* CBC coverage, interview of Jean Lapierre. He will be on Panels to do analysis. Jean Lapierre is a jerk and a founder of the BQ. Ech. Get lost. And keep your neutrality. Though to me, of course, it would be obvious. I suspect Lapierre must have preferred Ignatieff on the ballot due to the 'Quebecois nation' position. He certainly would not have been for Dion [and the Clarity Bill]

Michael Ignatieff: his obvious strength is his intellectual ability, and his experience as a public author/thinker and fairly effective communicator. His weaknesses are the overbilling by his own campaign as the second coming of Pierre Trudeau, his complete lack of serious federal experience in government, let alone Cabinet, the fact he missed those major Canadian debates: referendum 1980, referendum 1995 [I believe he covered it as a UK correspondent exploring notions of nation], Meech 1990, Charlottetown 1992, the Clarity Bill, and, every Liberal election campaign after 1968 and before 2006. This in turn, I think, has brought about his gaffes and flip flops on major questions relating to Quebec, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Israel/Lebabnon. He seemed blissfully unaware of the modern media, political, and internet/blog environment, perhaps remembering how Trudeau was able to be a provocateur and be rewarded for it.

The Liberal Party likes a winner and Ignatieff lost his early momentum and sheen as these predictable weaknesses ultimately revealed themselves.

The other evident difference: I can comment on Bob Rae and Stephane Dion's political records in Canada. With Ignatieff, one cannot. The most I really know is he campaigned for a Toronto candidate in 1968 while he was a student leader in Toronto, and later was an active Young Liberal prior to and during the Trudeau convention of 1968.


12:25 (Calgary) RESULTS are COMING SOON

My rough estimates (time to press 'publish')

Ignatieff: 40%
Dion: 35%
Rae: 25%

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Let the chips fall where they may, and kudos to Gerard Kennedy for making a kingmaker move at the right time.

***

waiting for second ballot results, interesting strolls across the floor

No commitments made, it seems, until we see the results, I am sure.

BUT: We just saw Gerard Kennedy and Stephane Dion do a meet&greet. This has been rumoured all week.

THEN:

We saw Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff do the same. This, of course, was a longstanding old 'conspiracy' that one would throw support to the other.

[Of course, Allan Gregg is saying that the delegates of these two lifelong intellectual friends are much less likely to move smoothly to one another than the Dion-Kennedy supporters are]

And let us recall the contrasts between Rae and Ignatieff on questions such as Iraq, and 'nation' status for Quebec.

Ralph Goodale says No Rae decision has been made.

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All of it very exciting stuff. And it is definitely early.

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Bring on those results!

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Congratulations to Senator Marie Poulin on her election as President of the Liberal Party of Canada. Bonne chance a vous. a_s_cameron@hotmail.com

Friday, December 01, 2006

Message / Question to Libloggers and Blogger Room

Is there an official breakdown of the ex-officio vote available somewhere?

I heard it evaluated on one of the TV shows, RDI I think... along the lines of

Iggy 256
Dion 180 (very happy)
Rae 160 (all I heard)

Please post, comment here, or email a_s_cameron@hotmail.com

Thanks!

Some new spins on the spins "Not much French in Bob Rae speech"

So I thought I detected from the CBC 'Issues' Panel that Ignatieff spinners went on the offensive on Bob Rae's lack of French, after Bob Rae's quite strong and natural speech. I also saw Denis Coderre and newly added Ignatieff supporter Nick Discepola [a defeated MP who wanted to run again but was passed over by Paul Martin, whom Discepola supported ardently over the years, for a great Canadian (tm) Marc Garneau who left Carleton University but who also was defeated] They were playing it up on either CTV Newsnet or CPAC, I forget which.

So the attack line must have gone out on 'berries to key messengers and probably directly to key media pundits.

Meanwhile, as I watch some RDI analysis, which I don't do often enough out here in Calgary, I am hearing the Bob Rae speech excerpts about 'le succes du Quebec, du aux Quebecois' and, hearing it once again, I think the message was top quality (and Bob Rae's French has always been quite fine, from my recollections)

So I conclude that attempting to quantify the French is weak, fearful spin.

RE: RDI Analysis... Chantal Hebert deux fois consecutives (and she was also mocked on Air Farce! Maybe we should declare her the winner of the evening.)


Here are my comments about this. Please all take heed.

1. Rae and Ignatieff: These two good men are friends. Long friends. Getting them both into the Liberal Party of Canada tent will be a fine thing for the Party. I think maybe they have intellectual rivalry. If they get past that, they could form their own party, and I would probably respect it.

2. Ignatieff's camp, if going on offense in this way about something ultimately somewhat mundane, is afraid of something. Meanwhile, I don't personally believe Bob Rae needs to prove any French bona fides whatsoever. I mean, it would be more logical to question how little French was in Kennedy's speech (unless his French weakness and low Quebec organization are so obvious it's not worth mentioning anymore) But it is not that: it is more simple. Ignatieff's strategists and spinners appear to have chosen to attack the number two guy, the guy who has gained momentum, the guy who gave a pretty damn good speech, leaving Ignatieff's final speech in the dread 'tough act to follow' space.

3. I see Martin Cauchon currently defending Bob Rae and shrugging off this feeble attempt to start a 'Frenchgate.' I wrote some long time ago that Martin Cauchon was an intelligent and classy guy and would have been an asset in this Leadership race himself.

4. There is high risk, ultimately, in these type of tactics. The counter tactic may be a little more harsh. By the end of it, someone's delegates may end up yelling 'vendu' (or some similar personal insult) ... and the damage is tremendous. This is absolutely the type of thing the Liberal Party of Canada simply must not allow to be created right now.

5. Journalists, meanwhile, love it and eat it up, and continue their horserace journalism, talking of who scored points, who was cautious, who looked better, who performed or exceeded or underwhelmed. Not a one of them seems to go into policy.

6. The Party activists in all camps should not be enabling that style. Focus on the high minded forward issues as much as possible. Keep it on the high road. Keep it smart. Impress Canadians with vision.

7. I hope Ignatieff enjoys his glass of wine and dinner with his wife. That's a good thing. But if he thinks it's out of his hands right now...

NEW!

Chantal Hebert French analysis from RDI: Globe online says 'Volpe goes to Bob Rae after speeches' She correctly points out that Volpe and Rae in the same headline is barely helpful to Bob Rae. She says a better headline would have been "Strong speech from Bob Rae heats up convention going into Saturday." I agree with her on this one.

as you can see below, comments were 'off'

Iggy Rocksssssssssssssss!!!!!
December 2nd, 2006

Iggy rocks! OMG what a speech. It got every nerve in my body twitching and raring, ready to go. This is the same Mike I have known from Harvard, A Mike who was always proud of being Canadians, a Mike who was always passionate, the Mike who is going to win the next election for us!!! Iggy rocksssssssssssssss!!!!!!

—————————–
Sent from my crackberry

Posted in Politics | Comments Off

COMMENT I COULD NOT POST TO Vijay Sappani's site:

Iggy zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.....

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new stuff:

I agree with whassisname making live blog perogies in a Saskatchewan apartment: I just saw Liberal Idol on Air Farce, and it was pretty good. Would have liked to see more impersonations, though. Ah well.

live blogging - Ignatieff speech

He's a smart man, he's a good man, he's a fine academic. His array of supporters in his video was impressive as well (shout-out to David McGuinty, MP) He is still a rookie politician, though, and his speech is falling flat through its staccato. Objectively compared to Rae before (who was fine, without podium or notes, by the way) and Kennedy before that, this speech is no better. I am hearing 'typical' Liberal stuff (from all three of them) ... the more above and beyond outside the box stuff, I thought, came in the Brison speech earlier.

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anglophones et francophones, 'tous ensemble?'
'tous ensemble' is a nice concept but this guy has recently put forward intellectual arguments that simply, and can only, ultimately, divide.

It seems funny to me that one group gets to be viewed as a 'nation' but we are still 'tous ensemble' and of course, I did read that John Ibbitson article about a new level of recognition for our first nations.

I have to say again, Bob Rae has already lived the debate about special status and constitutional powers... it was called Charlottetown, Rae was Premier of Canada's largest province, one that I have to say is the anchor of Confederation, and, a testament to Bob Rae's skills, Ontario voted _for_ Charlottetown. Meanwhile, where was Michael Ignatieff?

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I like the group chanting of "Canada!" though (What Liberal doesn't?)

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Pretty good speech finish, but I am not sure... I still just don't see it.

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First punditry: L. Ian McDonald (possible spelling error there by me): speech a bit flat with good applause line, not convincing, does not outdo Rae and Kennedy; second pundit: it seemed unconvincing. Nik Nanos: Ignatieff was too measured, almost professorial. (I agree)

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My verdict remains: he was too new to the Party, too new to modern Canadian politics, too untested, and, ultimately, too prone to dangerous gaffes on matters of substance.

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But of course, now the funny _really_ begins.

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A quick and friendly note to Cherniak. Bob Rae likely has a lot of tact, but has taken a different tack. Whether it was the best tactic is unknown.

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CPAC corners Brison with a rumour he'll go to Ignatieff. Brison denies. That move would certainly out-do this Volpe to Rae move, while uniting the two more right-leaning (my opinion) Liberals. I don't buy it just yet.

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One last thing for now: I sense growth for Ken Dryden as a 'second choice' type of guy.

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Time to stop blogging and channel surf over to some CBC/Newman off of CPAC. But good on CPAC for being available on my computer today. I enjoyed that.

Why I supported Gerard Kennedy (and a few other notes)

5:40 PM (MT) - Calgary
7:40 PM (ET) - Montreal / Liberal Leadership Convention at Palais des Congres.

Gerard Kennedy's podium speech is underway after a very slick video and nice intro by Justin Trudeau.

Now is a good time to reveal to anyone who cares that this is who I voted for back in September.

(I know there are about 10 of you kicking around out there)

I voted, in Calgary North Centre, for Gerard Kennedy, empowered a few of his noted delegates, and then distributed the rest of my delegate selections among various other camps to keep it interesting, including one for Ignatieff (who took time on a busy selection day to have a very good 10 minute conversation with me and showed me he was dedicated to his party and cause)

Kennedy gave Calgary got props in the speech.
I noticed Brison did it also.
Good for both Kennedy and Brison.



A bunch of good reasons to think of Kennedy:

1. credible Western roots, born in Manitoba, University in Alberta.

2. Acadian wife

3. 10 or so years of Ontario Liberal credibility and social activist credibility in Toronto.

4. Improving French

5. Tangible Charisma. Kennedy has always commanded loyalty.

6. Known Liberal Record (Ontario Liberal Party) 1996-2006. (That's more credible Liberal experience than Ignatieff and Bob Rae put together, though I am definitely not dismissing these two good men completely and randomly)

7. Cabinet Experience at Provincial level (that's more Cabinet experience than Michael Ignatieff)

8. Strong network in Ontario composed of his OLP Leadership supporters (1996) and an army of activist, passionate, ideological Teachers throughout Ontario and possibly beyond

9. Knows how to fight ideological neo-con knobs like John Baird, Jim Flaherty, and Tony Clement

10. Will easily win back Parkdale -- High Park from NDP MP Peggy Nash, which is a direct Liberal gain, as either Leader or very well-positioned federal Liberal who obviously will end up as Cabinet material regardless of whether he wins or loses the Liberal Leadership this weekend.

11. Excellent last name for progressive politics and inspiration

12. Interesting 'Jesus Jones' song selection... kinda cool 90s old school.


TEXT OF A NOTE I SENT TO ORGANIZERS OF A KENNEDY FUNDRAISER IN CALGARY
(one of just two in-person events I manged to attend out here)


[RECIPIENT NAME DELETED]

Hello. My name is Andrew Cameron. Quite new to
Calgary. Moved here last fall from Ottawa for [a good new job opportunity]

I was a very active Liberal in Ottawa for the Liberal Party of Canada and also for
the Ontario Liberal Party from 1996 [right up until] I left in mid-October 2005.

I campaigned extensively for LPC in 1997, 2000, and 2004 and for the Ontario Liberal Party in 1999 and 2003, and have participated as a delegate in many conventions and provincial council meetings, and involvement large and small in a few nomination campaigns. I even worked for a time at the LPC national office. I put Liberal signs in my apartment window in Calgary Centre North during the past campaign.

I paid ten dollars electronically for a 206 LPCA membership with the intention of at least voting for the next Leader, however, looking at my schedule, I am
likely to be in the Northwest Territories for the weekends of both delegate voting in late September and also in Inuvik during the actual Montreal Leadership
convention weekend. Unfortunate timing.

[It turns out I was able to vote at delegate selection, and I am in Calgary now, not Inuvik, but, it would have been impossible to organize and be able to get to Montreal for a full-scale convention participation. If I did, I would stop in at the Jello Bar.]

However, I am hopeful that I may be able to take the
opportunity to wish good candidates well and to listen
to them describing their ideas.

So, I am asking your permission to drop in on the
fundraising event in downtown Calgary on Monday.

However, I do not intend to donate to Gerard or to
other candidates. As noted, my own work schedule
makes it look like I won't even be voting for any one
candidate after all.

All that said, I would like to have the opportunity to
give Gerard Kennedy some good wishes of support in his
LPC Leadership effort. [cut]

My main riding of activity in Ottawa was Ottawa South.
That's the riding represented by Ontario Premier
Dalton McGuinty [who defeated Kennedy on the last
ballot to become OLP Leader in 1996]

That said, Gerard was an awesome team player in OLP and his move
to leave the Ontario Cabinet to throw into a wide-open
heavy field federal Liberal Leadership race, and to help represent
the west a little bit (as well as being another urban
Toronto candidate) is a bold one, potentially quite a
sacrifice.

Education, of course, was a huge battleground in Ontario and my Mom is an Ontario
public teacher; Gerard Kennedy has accomplished much to make things better for my Mom and for students and parents in Ontario. Good for him.

Gerard also worked hard to strengthen OLP after its 1999 defeat and help
McGuinty and team to victory in Ontario in 2003.

For all of these reasons, I certainly want to wish him
well in his bold federal move.

[cut]

Thank you for your attention and good luck to you and
your Calgary Kennedy campaign colleagues. Minimally,
if I can't drop in, please take a moment to print
these wishes out and forward them to Gerard Kennedy if
possible.

Thank you and kindest personal regards,


Andrew Cameron

[end of insert]


Other sidenotes: Kennedy's speech was excellent. I missed Dion's, it seems. (I had to walk home from work.) I heard most of Dryden's (and liked his video, too) I ignored Volpe's, but was pleased to learn how feeble his delegate turnout was.

I hugely enjoyed Jean Chretien's news scrum today and I am looking forward to seeing him on a podium at this convention. I miss da liddle guy and always believed in him.

New stuff: I am watching Bob Rae's intro video. I am indeed impressed by the array of endorsements around him, and his demonstration of Ontario capacity. Rae is the other event I attended out here. I even gave him a mercy vote in 1995. Maybe, just maybe, I was 11 years ahead of many Liberals on this man's pragmatic and progressive intellectual leadership. Sidenote two: Richard Mahoney was in there, and so was Mike Robinson. This is a strong tandem and complement to John Rae and Eddie Goldenberg, no? Impressive, and at least as good as Dion's Martin/Chretien bridge. Rae's ability to speak intelligently, seemingly without notes or anything, is most impressive.

END FOR NOW, surely more later.

And, while I am at it, I have to say, too, Stephane Dion almost got my vote, too, even though I didn't get a chance to see him in Calgary. (He was here, but I could not be) His class and federal Cabinet record are also very worthy.

Things bode well for the Liberal Party of Canada if these Leadership candidates and all Party members can pull together at the end of this thing. This team has experience and intellectual firepower like I have not seen yet in my time. And let's not forget fine ex-Ministers and intellects also in the wings, such as Bill Graham, Irwin Cotler, David McGuinty, and a fine roster of others.

This Calgary Liberal is excited about the renewal ahead.

Send some feedback in, I'll be watching and reading all weekend.

a_s_cameron@hotmail.com